The authors developed a model that simultaneously estimated incidence of unintended pregnancy and abortion within a Bayesian framework. The findings suggest that between 1990–94 and 2015–19, the global unintended pregnancy rate has declined, whereas the proportion of unintended pregnancies ending in abortion has increased. As a result, the global average abortion rate in 2015–19 was roughly equal to the estimates for 1990–94. Our findings suggest that people in high-income countries have better access to sexual and reproductive health care than those in low-income countries. Our findings indicate that individuals seek abortion even in settings where it is restricted. These findings emphasise the importance of ensuring access to the full spectrum of sexual and reproductive health services, including contraception and abortion care, and for additional investment towards equity in health-care services.


  1. Bongaarts J Mensch BS Blanc AK. Trends in the age at reproductive transitions in the developing world: the role of education. Popul Stud. 2017; 71: 139-154

  2. Darroch JE. Trends in contraceptive use. Contraception. 2013; 87: 259-263

  3. Bongaarts J. Can family planning programs reduce high desired family size in sub-Saharan Africa? Int Perspect Sex Reprod Health. 2011; 37: 209-216


Please Sign in (or Register) to view further.